White Sox at Mariners
Last play · Colson Montgomery strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Mariners100%
CWS 0%SEA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCWS 2 – 2 SEA
Tied through 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 47.7% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+119 / -144
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mariners favored ↑50%White Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jhonny Pereda homers (1) on a line drive to left field. (inning 7) — +31% Mariners
9Randal Grichuk homers (4) on a fly ball to right field.4–5
8Tristan Peters grounds into a force out, second baseman Cole Young to shortstop Colt Emerson. Chase Meidroth scores. Jarred Kelenic out at 2nd. Throwing error by shortstop Colt Emerson.3–5
7Randy Arozarena homers (5) on a fly ball to left center field. Julio Rodríguez scores.2–5
7Jhonny Pereda homers (1) on a line drive to left field.2–3
5Munetaka Murakami singles on a ground ball to right fielder Luke Raley. Luisangel Acuña scores. Sam Antonacci to 3rd.2–2
4Patrick Wisdom doubles (1) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Sam Antonacci. Randy Arozarena scores.1–2
3Andrew Benintendi singles on a line drive to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Sam Antonacci scores.1–1
2Dominic Canzone doubles (8) on a ground ball to right fielder Jarred Kelenic. Randy Arozarena scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
