D-backs at Mariners
Last play · Victor Robles singles on a ground ball to shortstop Geraldo Perdomo. Randy Arozarena scores. Luke Raley to 3rd.
Win probability
Mariners100%
AZ 0%SEA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalAZ 0 – 1 SEA
Mariners led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 47.9% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+128 / -155
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mariners favored ↑50%D-backs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Dominic Canzone homers (7) on a fly ball to right field. (inning 6) — +26% Mariners
10Victor Robles singles on a ground ball to shortstop Geraldo Perdomo. Randy Arozarena scores. Luke Raley to 3rd.2–3
8Ketel Marte out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Gabriel Moreno scores.2–2
6Dominic Canzone homers (7) on a fly ball to right field.1–2
6Nolan Arenado strikes out swinging.1–1
2Cole Young homers (4) on a fly ball to right field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
