D-backs at Mariners
Last play · Gabriel Moreno grounds out, shortstop J.P. Crawford to first baseman Josh Naylor.
Win probability
Mariners100%
AZ 0%SEA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalAZ 0 – 4 SEA
Mariners led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 47.9% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+128 / -155
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mariners favored ↑50%D-backs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Luke Raley homers (13) on a fly ball to right center field. (inning 2) — +10% Mariners
9Gabriel Moreno grounds out, shortstop J.P. Crawford to first baseman Josh Naylor.1–5
6Cole Young out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Corbin Carroll. Randy Arozarena scores.0–5
3Julio Rodríguez homers (12) on a fly ball to center field.0–4
3Colt Emerson homers (2) on a fly ball to right field.0–3
2Dominic Canzone homers (6) on a fly ball to right center field.0–2
2Luke Raley homers (13) on a fly ball to right center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
