Mets at Mariners
Last play · Rob Refsnyder flies out to left fielder MJ Melendez.
Win probability
Mariners0%
NYM 100%SEA 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 6 – 1 SEA
Mets led after 5
Total runs
7
opened 7.5 ↓
fair over 52.9% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+119 / -144
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mariners favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Bo Bichette singles on a ground ball to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. MJ Melendez scores. Luis Torrens scores. Carson Benge to 2nd. (inning 4) — -26% Mets
8Bo Bichette out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Luis Torrens scores.7–1
5MJ Melendez doubles (4) on a line drive to right fielder Luke Raley. A.J. Ewing scores. MJ Melendez to 3rd.6–1
4Jared Young doubles (3) on a ground ball to right fielder Luke Raley. Juan Soto scores.5–1
4Bo Bichette singles on a ground ball to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. MJ Melendez scores. Luis Torrens scores. Carson Benge to 2nd.3–1
1J.P. Crawford homers (10) on a fly ball to right center field.1–1
1Jared Young reaches on a fielder's choice. Bo Bichette scores. Juan Soto to 2nd. Throwing error by first baseman Josh Naylor.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
