Mets at Mariners
Last play · Brett Baty pops out softly to third baseman Colt Emerson in foul territory.
Win probability
Mariners100%
NYM 0%SEA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 2 – 7 SEA
Mariners led after 5
Total runs
7
opened 7.5 ↓
fair over 52.9% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+119 / -144
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mariners favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Carson Benge homers (5) on a fly ball to right center field. A.J. Ewing scores. (inning 3) — -23% Mets
6Julio Rodríguez homers (13) on a fly ball to left center field.3–8
6Carson Benge homers (6) on a fly ball to center field.3–7
5Jhonny Pereda homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field. Cole Young scores. Dominic Canzone scores.2–7
4Julio Rodríguez out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Juan Soto. Patrick Wisdom scores.2–4
3Luke Raley reaches on a fielding error by first baseman Mark Vientos. Randy Arozarena scores. Luke Raley to 2nd.2–3
3Carson Benge homers (5) on a fly ball to right center field. A.J. Ewing scores.2–2
2Patrick Wisdom homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field. Dominic Canzone scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
