Orioles at Mariners
Last play · Samuel Basallo grounds out, shortstop Colt Emerson to first baseman Miles Mastrobuoni.
Win probability
Mariners100%
BAL 0%SEA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalBAL 1 – 1 SEA
Tied through 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 49.6% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+114 / -137
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mariners favored ↑50%Orioles favored ↓
Biggest swing · Cal Raleigh singles on a line drive to center fielder Colton Cowser. Victor Robles scores. Colt Emerson scores. J.P. Crawford to 2nd. (inning 7) — +31% Mariners
7Cal Raleigh singles on a line drive to center fielder Colton Cowser. Victor Robles scores. Colt Emerson scores. J.P. Crawford to 2nd.1–3
3Julio Rodríguez singles on a line drive to left fielder Taylor Ward. Miles Mastrobuoni scores. J.P. Crawford to 2nd.1–1
1Samuel Basallo singles on a line drive to right fielder Dominic Canzone. Taylor Ward scores. Pete Alonso to 2nd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
