Orioles at Mariners
Last play · Connor Joe strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Mariners0%
BAL 100%SEA 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalBAL 2 – 1 SEA
Orioles led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8 ↓
fair over 52% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+105 / -126
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mariners favored ↑50%Orioles favored ↓
Biggest swing · Gunnar Henderson homers (15) on a fly ball to right center field. Blaze Alexander scores. (inning 3) — -26% Orioles
9Cole Young homers (6) on a fly ball to right field.5–3
9Dominic Canzone homers (11) on a fly ball to right field.5–2
9Jackson Holliday homers (4) on a line drive to center field.5–1
7Taylor Ward grounds into a double play, third baseman J.P. Crawford to second baseman Cole Young to first baseman Miles Mastrobuoni. Jackson Holliday scores. Blaze Alexander out at 2nd. Taylor Ward out at 1st.4–1
6Leody Taveras triples (4) on a line drive to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Pete Alonso scores.3–1
4Dominic Canzone singles on a ground ball to center fielder Leody Taveras. Julio Rodríguez scores.2–1
3Gunnar Henderson homers (15) on a fly ball to right center field. Blaze Alexander scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
