Red Sox at Mariners
Last play · Cole Young pops out to shortstop Marcelo Mayer.
Win probability
Mariners0%
BOS 100%SEA 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 2 – 1 SEA
Red Sox led after 5
Total runs
6.5
opened 7 ↓
fair over 50.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+113 / -136
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mariners favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Wilyer Abreu homers (9) on a fly ball to center field. Anthony Seigler scores. (inning 4) — -26% Red Sox
6Marcelo Mayer singles on a ground ball to second baseman Cole Young. Jarren Duran scores. Caleb Durbin to 2nd.5–1
6Caleb Durbin singles on a ground ball to shortstop Colt Emerson. Willson Contreras scores. Jarren Duran to 3rd.4–1
4Wilyer Abreu homers (9) on a fly ball to center field. Anthony Seigler scores.2–1
1Josh Naylor singles on a line drive to center fielder Nate Eaton. J.P. Crawford scores. Julio Rodríguez to 2nd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
