Orioles at Mariners
Last play · Leody Taveras strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Mariners100%
BAL 0%SEA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalBAL 0 – 3 SEA
Mariners led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8 ↓
fair over 52% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+105 / -126
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mariners favored ↑50%Orioles favored ↓
Biggest swing · Colt Emerson singles on a ground ball to right fielder Leody Taveras. Dominic Canzone scores. Cole Young scores. (inning 1) — +16% Mariners
1Colt Emerson singles on a ground ball to right fielder Leody Taveras. Dominic Canzone scores. Cole Young scores.0–3
1Cole Young doubles (11) on a line drive to left fielder Taylor Ward. Josh Naylor scores. Dominic Canzone to 3rd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
