Red Sox at Mariners
Last play · Cole Young pops out to first baseman Willson Contreras.
Win probability
Mariners0%
BOS 100%SEA 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 1 – 0 SEA
Red Sox led after 5
Total runs
7
opened 7
fair over 52.3% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+105 / -126
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mariners favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Caleb Durbin homers (5) on a fly ball to left center field. (inning 2) — -15% Red Sox
9Julio Rodríguez homers (14) on a fly ball to center field. Cal Raleigh scores.6–2
9Marcelo Mayer doubles (8) on a line drive to left fielder Connor Joe. Caleb Durbin scores.6–0
7Carlos Narváez out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Caleb Durbin scores.5–0
7Marcelo Mayer singles on a ground ball to right fielder Dominic Canzone. Willson Contreras scores. Jarren Duran scores. Caleb Durbin to 3rd. Marcelo Mayer to 2nd. Throwing error by right fielder Dominic Canzone.4–0
7Willson Contreras singles on a ground ball to right fielder Dominic Canzone.2–0
2Caleb Durbin homers (5) on a fly ball to left center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
