Red Sox at Mariners
Last play · Jarren Duran strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Mariners100%
BOS 0%SEA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 1 – 2 SEA
Mariners led after 5
Total runs
6.5
opened 7 ↓
fair over 50.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+113 / -136
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mariners favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Cole Young singles on a ground ball to left fielder Jarren Duran. Weston Wilson scores. (inning 5) — +15% Mariners
6Dominic Canzone grounds out, shortstop Marcelo Mayer to first baseman Willson Contreras. Julio Rodríguez scores. Rob Refsnyder to 2nd.1–3
5Cole Young singles on a ground ball to left fielder Jarren Duran. Weston Wilson scores.1–2
3Nate Eaton homers (1) on a fly ball to left field.1–1
2Dominic Canzone homers (12) on a fly ball to left field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
