Angels at Mariners
Last play · Oswald Peraza grounds into a double play, shortstop Colt Emerson to second baseman Cole Young to first baseman Josh Naylor. Jo Adell out at 2nd. Oswald Peraza out at 1st.
Win probability
Mariners100%
LAA 0%SEA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalLAA 2 – 3 SEA
Mariners led after 5
Total runs
7
opened 7.5 ↓
fair over 49.7% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+158 / -193
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mariners favored ↑50%Angels favored ↓
Biggest swing · Cal Raleigh singles on a fly ball to left fielder Wade Meckler. Randy Arozarena scores. Josh Naylor scores. (inning 4) — +29% Mariners
6Cole Young homers (9) on a fly ball to right field. Josh Naylor scores.2–6
6Dominic Canzone homers (13) on a fly ball to right center field.2–4
4Cal Raleigh singles on a fly ball to left fielder Wade Meckler. Randy Arozarena scores. Josh Naylor scores.2–3
3Cole Young homers (8) on a fly ball to center field.2–1
3Zach Neto homers (18) on a fly ball to left center field.2–0
1Denzer Guzman singles on a ground ball to right fielder Victor Robles, deflected by first baseman Josh Naylor. Zach Neto scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
