Blue Jays at Mariners
Last play · Josh Naylor grounds into a force out, fielded by shortstop Andrés Giménez. Weston Wilson out at 2nd.
Win probability
Mariners0%
TOR 100%SEA 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTOR 2 – 0 SEA
Blue Jays led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 50.4% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+140 / -169
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mariners favored ↑50%Blue Jays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Andrés Giménez doubles (14) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Victor Robles. Sean Keys scores. (inning 3) — -14% Blue Jays
3Vladimir Guerrero Jr. singles on a line drive to right fielder Luke Raley. Andrés Giménez scores.2–0
3Andrés Giménez doubles (14) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Victor Robles. Sean Keys scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
