Blue Jays at Mariners
Last play · Nathan Lukes grounds out, shortstop Colt Emerson to first baseman Josh Naylor.
Win probability
Mariners100%
TOR 0%SEA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTOR 0 – 7 SEA
Mariners led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 50.4% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+140 / -169
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mariners favored ↑50%Blue Jays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Randy Arozarena hits a grand slam (9) to left field. Victor Robles scores. Colt Emerson scores. J.P. Crawford scores. (inning 2) — +25% Mariners
6Cal Raleigh homers (9) on a fly ball to right field. Randy Arozarena scores. Dominic Canzone scores.0–11
6Dominic Canzone singles on a ground ball to right fielder Nathan Lukes. Colt Emerson scores. Randy Arozarena to 2nd.0–8
5Dominic Canzone homers (14) on a fly ball to right center field. Randy Arozarena scores.0–7
2Randy Arozarena hits a grand slam (9) to left field. Victor Robles scores. Colt Emerson scores. J.P. Crawford scores.0–5
2Victor Robles singles on a line drive to left fielder Yohendrick Piñango. Cole Young scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
