Blue Jays at Mariners
Last play · Alejandro Kirk lines out to center fielder Victor Robles.
Win probability
Mariners100%
TOR 0%SEA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTOR 0 – 3 SEA
Mariners led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 47.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-110 / -110
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mariners favored ↑50%Blue Jays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Mitch Garver homers (4) on a fly ball to left field. Cole Young scores. (inning 4) — +17% Mariners
8Josh Naylor singles on a ground ball to third baseman Kazuma Okamoto. Randy Arozarena scores. Cal Raleigh to 2nd.0–4
4Mitch Garver homers (4) on a fly ball to left field. Cole Young scores.0–3
3Cal Raleigh out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Nathan Lukes. Victor Robles scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
