Giants at Mariners
Last play · Julio Rodríguez out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Grant McCray. Victor Robles scores.
Win probability
Mariners100%
SF 0%SEA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSF 1 – 0 SEA
Giants led after 5
Total runs
7
opened 7
fair over 51.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+163 / -199
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mariners favored ↑50%Giants favored ↓
Biggest swing · Cole Young homers (12) on a fly ball to right center field. Randy Arozarena scores. Josh Naylor scores. (inning 7) — +49% Mariners
10Julio Rodríguez out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Grant McCray. Victor Robles scores.3–4
7Cole Young homers (12) on a fly ball to right center field. Randy Arozarena scores. Josh Naylor scores.3–3
6Willy Adames homers (17) on a fly ball to right field.3–0
6Rafael Devers homers (20) on a fly ball to left field.2–0
3Bryce Eldridge singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Luke Raley. Drew Gilbert scores. Luis Arraez to 2nd. Fielding error by center fielder Luke Raley.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
