Giants at Mariners
Last play · Cal Raleigh pops out to third baseman Casey Schmitt.
Win probability
Mariners0%
SF 100%SEA 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSF 2 – 0 SEA
Giants led after 5
Total runs
7
opened 7
fair over 49.8% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+136 / -164
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mariners favored ↑50%Giants favored ↓
Biggest swing · Bryce Eldridge homers (9) on a fly ball to center field. Drew Cavanaugh scores. (inning 5) — -28% Giants
7Willy Adames hits a grand slam (16) to center field. Casey Schmitt scores. Heliot Ramos scores. Jung Hoo Lee scores.7–0
6Luis Arraez reaches on a fielding error by second baseman Cole Young. Jung Hoo Lee scores. Drew Gilbert to 3rd. Drew Cavanaugh to 2nd.3–0
5Bryce Eldridge homers (9) on a fly ball to center field. Drew Cavanaugh scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
