Reds at Mariners
Last play · Dominic Canzone strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Mariners0%
CIN 100%SEA 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCIN 3 – 0 SEA
Reds led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+144 / -175
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mariners favored ↑50%Reds favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nathaniel Lowe homers (12) on a fly ball to left field. (inning 9) — -21% Reds
9Nathaniel Lowe homers (12) on a fly ball to left field.4–2
8Julio Rodríguez homers (15) on a fly ball to left center field.3–2
7Weston Wilson homers (3) on a fly ball to left field.3–1
5Sal Stewart out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Victor Robles. TJ Friedl scores. Edwin Arroyo to 3rd.3–0
4Eugenio Suárez homers (13) on a fly ball to center field.2–0
1Elly De La Cruz homers (17) on a fly ball to right center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
