Giants at Mariners
SF3–
SEA6Last play · Willy Adames strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Mariners100%
SF 0%SEA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSF 3 – 3 SEA
Tied through 5
Total runs
7
opened 7
fair over 51.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+163 / -199
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mariners favored ↑50%Giants favored ↓
Biggest swing · Luke Raley homers (15) on a fly ball to right center field. (inning 6) — +19% Mariners
7Cole Young homers (13) on a fly ball to right field. Julio Rodríguez scores.3–6
6Luke Raley homers (15) on a fly ball to right center field.3–4
5Cal Raleigh grounds into a double play, third baseman Casey Schmitt to second baseman Luis Arraez to first baseman Rafael Devers. Cole Young scores. Randy Arozarena out at 2nd. Cal Raleigh out at 1st.3–3
5Luis Arraez doubles (22) on a line drive to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Willy Adames scores.3–2
4Weston Wilson singles on a ground ball to center fielder Grant McCray. Josh Naylor scores.2–2
4Josh Naylor singles on a ground ball to left fielder Heliot Ramos. Randy Arozarena scores.2–1
1Heliot Ramos singles on a ground ball to right fielder Weston Wilson. Casey Schmitt scores.2–0
1Bryce Eldridge homers (10) on a fly ball to center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.