Reds at Mariners
Last play · Noelvi Marte strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Mariners100%
CIN 0%SEA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCIN 0 – 1 SEA
Mariners led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 49.6% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-102 / -119
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mariners favored ↑50%Reds favored ↓
Biggest swing · Julio Rodríguez singles on a ground ball to shortstop Elly De La Cruz. Victor Robles scores. Randy Arozarena to 2nd. (inning 5) — +15% Mariners
8Cal Raleigh grounds into a force out, second baseman Edwin Arroyo to shortstop Elly De La Cruz. Colt Emerson scores. Randy Arozarena to 3rd. Dominic Canzone out at 2nd. Cal Raleigh to 1st.0–8
7Cal Raleigh hits a grand slam (10) to left center field. Randy Arozarena scores. Weston Wilson scores. Dominic Canzone scores.0–7
7Weston Wilson doubles (2) on a line drive to right fielder Spencer Steer. Luke Raley scores. Randy Arozarena to 3rd.0–3
7Colt Emerson out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder JJ Bleday. Victor Robles scores.0–2
5Julio Rodríguez singles on a ground ball to shortstop Elly De La Cruz. Victor Robles scores. Randy Arozarena to 2nd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
