Twins at Mariners
Last play · Mitch Garver strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Mariners0%
MIN 100%SEA 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIN 2 – 3 SEA
Mariners led after 5
Total runs
7
opened 8 ↓
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+142 / -172
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mariners favored ↑50%Twins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Royce Lewis homers (11) on a fly ball to left center field. (inning 7) — -26% Twins
8Ryan Jeffers homers (10) on a fly ball to left field.5–3
7Luke Keaschall doubles (15) on a line drive to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Alan Roden scores.4–3
7Royce Lewis homers (11) on a fly ball to left center field.3–3
2Cole Young homers (14) on a line drive to right center field.2–3
2Brooks Lee homers (16) on a fly ball to right field. Josh Bell scores.2–2
1Cal Raleigh hits a ground-rule double (8) on a line drive down the right-field line. Randy Arozarena scores. Dominic Canzone scores. Josh Naylor to 3rd.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
