Reds at Mariners
Last play · Luke Raley flies out to left fielder JJ Bleday.
Win probability
Mariners0%
CIN 100%SEA 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCIN 2 – 3 SEA
Mariners led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+144 / -175
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mariners favored ↑50%Reds favored ↓
Biggest swing · Sal Stewart homers (21) on a fly ball to right center field. Edwin Arroyo scores. Ke'Bryan Hayes scores. (inning 7) — -53% Reds
7Sal Stewart homers (21) on a fly ball to right center field. Edwin Arroyo scores. Ke'Bryan Hayes scores.5–3
4Luke Raley singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Dane Myers. Randy Arozarena scores. Josh Naylor scores.2–3
4Dane Myers singles on a ground ball to second baseman Cole Young. Tyler Stephenson scores.2–1
4JJ Bleday homers (17) on a fly ball to right field.1–1
2Cal Raleigh singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Spencer Steer. Josh Naylor scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
