Twins at Mariners
Last play · Colt Emerson singles on a sharp ground ball to right fielder Austin Martin. Stuart Fairchild scores. Victor Robles to 3rd.
Win probability
Mariners100%
MIN 0%SEA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIN 0 – 2 SEA
Mariners led after 5
Total runs
7
opened 7
fair over 50.6% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+122 / -147
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mariners favored ↑50%Twins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Luke Keaschall homers (6) on a fly ball to right center field. (inning 9) — -41% Twins
9Colt Emerson singles on a sharp ground ball to right fielder Austin Martin. Stuart Fairchild scores. Victor Robles to 3rd.6–7
9Luke Keaschall homers (6) on a fly ball to right center field.6–6
8Royce Lewis homers (12) on a fly ball to center field. Josh Bell scores. Kody Clemens scores.5–6
8Trevor Larnach homers (10) on a fly ball to right field. Ryan Kreidler scores.2–6
7Cal Raleigh homers (12) on a fly ball to left center field. Dominic Canzone scores. Julio Rodríguez scores.0–6
6Cole Young singles on a ground ball to center fielder Luke Keaschall. Colt Emerson scores. Leo Rivas to 3rd.0–3
1Josh Naylor doubles (16) on a line drive to left fielder Trevor Larnach. Cole Young scores. Randy Arozarena scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
