Tigers at Mariners
Last play · Cole Young grounds out, second baseman Zach McKinstry to first baseman Spencer Torkelson.
Win probability
Mariners0%
DET 100%SEA 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalDET 4 – 0 SEA
Tigers led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+102 / -110
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mariners favored ↑50%Tigers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Dillon Dingler homers (26) on a fly ball to center field. Kevin McGonigle scores. (inning 1) — -21% Tigers
9Javier Báez singles on a ground ball to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Colt Keith scores. Spencer Torkelson scores. Max Clark to 2nd.11–0
9Max Clark singles on a line drive to right fielder Taylor Ward. James Outman scores. Colt Keith to 3rd. Spencer Torkelson to 2nd.9–0
7Colt Keith singles on a line drive to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Dillon Dingler scores.8–0
7Dillon Dingler singles on a line drive to right fielder Taylor Ward. Gleyber Torres scores. Dillon Dingler to 2nd. Throwing error by right fielder Taylor Ward.7–0
7Kevin McGonigle homers (12) on a fly ball to center field. Zach McKinstry scores.6–0
2Dillon Dingler singles on a ground ball to right fielder Taylor Ward. Kevin McGonigle scores.4–0
1Colt Keith doubles (14) on a line drive to right fielder Taylor Ward. Riley Greene scores.3–0
1Dillon Dingler homers (26) on a fly ball to center field. Kevin McGonigle scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
