Rays at Mariners
Last play · Taylor Ward flies out to center fielder Cedric Mullins.
Win probability
Mariners0%
TB 100%SEA 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTB 2 – 1 SEA
Rays led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 46.8% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-104 / -104
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mariners favored ↑50%Rays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Liam Hicks doubles (11) on a line drive to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Yandy Díaz scores. Chandler Simpson scores. Junior Caminero to 3rd. (inning 6) — -24% Rays
6Liam Hicks doubles (11) on a line drive to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Yandy Díaz scores. Chandler Simpson scores. Junior Caminero to 3rd.4–1
5Cedric Mullins singles on a ground ball to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Junior Caminero scores. Liam Hicks to 3rd.2–1
4Yandy Díaz singles on a sharp ground ball to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Cedric Mullins scores. Richie Palacios to 2nd.1–1
1Cole Young singles on a sharp ground ball to right fielder Victor Mesa Jr. Taylor Ward scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
