Rays at Mariners
Last play · Josh Naylor called out on strikes.
Win probability
Mariners0%
TB 100%SEA 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTB 2 – 0 SEA
Rays led after 5
Total runs
7
opened 7.5 ↓
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+125 / -134
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mariners favored ↑50%Rays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jonny DeLuca homers (8) on a fly ball to center field. (inning 2) — -15% Rays
9Julio Rodríguez homers (18) on a fly ball to left field.2–1
3Jonathan Aranda homers (15) on a fly ball to right field.2–0
2Jonny DeLuca homers (8) on a fly ball to center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
