Rays at Mariners
Last play · Brendan Donovan grounds into a double play, first baseman Jonathan Aranda to shortstop Taylor Walls to pitcher Bryan Baker. Julio Rodríguez out at 2nd. Brendan Donovan out at 1st.
Win probability
Mariners0%
TB 100%SEA 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTB 1 – 1 SEA
Tied through 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 46.8% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-104 / -104
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mariners favored ↑50%Rays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Richie Palacios singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Taylor Ward. Chandler Simpson scores. Cedric Mullins scores. Liam Hicks to 3rd. (inning 6) — -29% Rays
7Josh Naylor homers (10) on a fly ball to right center field.3–2
6Richie Palacios singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Taylor Ward. Chandler Simpson scores. Cedric Mullins scores. Liam Hicks to 3rd.3–1
4Victor Mesa Jr. homers (9) on a fly ball to right field.1–1
2Josh Naylor homers (9) on a fly ball to right center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
