Cubs at Mariners
CHC5–
SEA6Last play · Leo Rivas singles on a line drive to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Randy Arozarena scores. Josh Naylor to 2nd.
Win probability
Mariners100%
CHC 0%SEA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 3 – 5 SEA
Mariners led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8 ↓
fair over 48.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+110 / -118
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mariners favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Alex Bregman homers (18) on a fly ball to left center field. (inning 9) — -38% Cubs
10Leo Rivas singles on a line drive to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Randy Arozarena scores. Josh Naylor to 2nd.5–6
9Alex Bregman homers (18) on a fly ball to left center field.5–5
8Ian Happ homers (21) on a fly ball to right center field.4–5
5Randy Arozarena singles on a fly ball to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Brock Rodden scores.3–5
2Brendan Donovan singles on a line drive to right fielder Seiya Suzuki. Cole Young scores.3–4
2Cal Raleigh homers (14) on a line drive to left center field. Josh Naylor scores. Taylor Ward scores.3–3
1Alex Bregman homers (17) on a fly ball to left field. Michael Busch scores.3–0
1Pete Crow-Armstrong homers (32) on a fly ball to right center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.