Cubs at Mariners
CHC19–
SEA2Last play · Randy Arozarena grounds out, shortstop Gabriel Arias to first baseman Michael Busch.
Win probability
Mariners0%
CHC 100%SEA 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 6 – 2 SEA
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-122 / +113
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mariners favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ian Happ hits a grand slam (22) to right field. Seiya Suzuki scores. Michael Busch scores. Alex Bregman scores. (inning 3) — -45% Cubs
9Pedro Ramírez singles on a line drive to right fielder Victor Robles. Michael Busch scores. Gabriel Arias to 2nd.19–2
9Gabriel Arias grounds into a force out, shortstop Leo Rivas to second baseman Cole Young. Seiya Suzuki scores. Michael Busch to 3rd. Ian Happ out at 2nd. Gabriel Arias to 1st.18–2
9Alex Bregman out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Kevin Alcántara scores.17–2
8Pedro Ramírez hits a grand slam (3) to left field. Alex Bregman scores. Ian Happ scores. Gabriel Arias scores.16–2
8Gabriel Arias singles on a ground ball to pitcher Jhonny Pereda. Michael Busch scores. Alex Bregman to 3rd. Ian Happ to 2nd.12–2
8Ian Happ walks. Seiya Suzuki scores. Michael Busch to 3rd. Alex Bregman to 2nd.11–2
8Pete Crow-Armstrong homers (33) on a line drive to right field. Carson Kelly scores.10–2
8Carson Kelly singles on a fly ball to third baseman Weston Wilson. Pedro Ramírez scores. Carson Kelly to 2nd.8–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.