Phillies @ Mariners — Live Pitcher Fatigue & Win Probability

PHI1–

SEA4

Final

Inn	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
PHI	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	6	0
SEA	0	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	·	4	5	0

Last play · Bryan De La Cruz strikes out swinging.

Win probability

Mariners100%

PHI 0%SEA 100%

First 5 (F5)

final

PHI 1 – 1 SEA

Tied through 5

Total runs

opened 7

fair over 49.8% · hold 4.8%

Run line

+1.5

Moneyline

reference

-134 / +125

We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.

Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.

Mariners favored ↑50%Phillies favored ↓

Biggest swing · Mariners challenged (tag play), call on the field was upheld: Josh Naylor singles on a line drive to center fielder Justin Crawford. Julio Rodríguez scores. Josh Naylor out at 2nd on the throw, center fielder Justin Crawford to catcher Garrett Stubbs to shortstop Trea Turner. (inning 6) — +19% Mariners

7Dominic Canzone singles on a line drive to center fielder Justin Crawford. Taylor Ward scores. J.P. Crawford scores. Brock Rodden to 3rd.1–4

6Mariners challenged (tag play), call on the field was upheld: Josh Naylor singles on a line drive to center fielder Justin Crawford. Julio Rodríguez scores. Josh Naylor out at 2nd on the throw, center fielder Justin Crawford to catcher Garrett Stubbs to shortstop Trea Turner.1–2

2Cal Raleigh homers (18) on a fly ball to right field.1–1

2Justin Crawford singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Bryson Stott scores. Brandon Marsh to 2nd.1–0

Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.

Line score

The book's line

Win probability timeline

Scoring plays

Phillies at Mariners