Phillies at Mariners
Last play · Brandon Marsh strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Mariners100%
PHI 0%SEA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPHI 2 – 8 SEA
Mariners led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+103 / -111
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mariners favored ↑50%Phillies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Julio Rodríguez homers (20) on a fly ball to left field. Randy Arozarena scores. Dominic Canzone scores. (inning 1) — +31% Mariners
7Cal Raleigh homers (17) on a fly ball to right field.2–9
5Cole Young homers (16) on a line drive to right field.2–8
5Cal Raleigh homers (16) on a fly ball to right center field.2–7
3Cal Raleigh walks.2–6
2J.T. Realmuto homers (9) on a line drive to left center field.2–5
1Cal Raleigh homers (15) on a fly ball to right field. Taylor Ward scores.1–5
1Julio Rodríguez homers (20) on a fly ball to left field. Randy Arozarena scores. Dominic Canzone scores.1–3
1Alec Bohm grounds out, second baseman Cole Young to first baseman Josh Naylor. Kyle Schwarber scores. Bryce Harper to 3rd. Luis Arraez to 2nd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
