Phillies at Mariners
Last play · Patrick Wisdom lines out to left fielder Brandon Marsh.
Win probability
Mariners0%
PHI 100%SEA 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalPHI 6 – 0 SEA
Phillies led after 5
Total runs
7
opened 7
fair over 49.8% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-134 / +125
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mariners favored ↑50%Phillies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Bryce Harper homers (27) on a fly ball to left center field. Kyle Schwarber scores. (inning 1) — -21% Phillies
2Kyle Schwarber homers (40) on a fly ball to right center field. Brandon Marsh scores. Justin Crawford scores.6–0
2Justin Crawford singles on a ground ball to right fielder Taylor Ward. Bryson Stott scores. Brandon Marsh to 2nd.3–0
1Bryce Harper homers (27) on a fly ball to left center field. Kyle Schwarber scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
