Athletics at Mariners
ATH7–
SEA6Last play · Julio Rodríguez flies out to center fielder Denzel Clarke.
Win probability
Mariners0%
ATH 100%SEA 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalATH 7 – 5 SEA
Athletics led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8 ↓
fair over 49.9% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+201 / -249
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mariners favored ↑50%Athletics favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jeff McNeil homers (8) on a fly ball to right field. Henry Bolte scores. (inning 3) — -26% Athletics
8Josh Naylor singles on a ground ball to center fielder Denzel Clarke. Cal Raleigh scores.7–6
5Lawrence Butler singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Zack Gelof scores.7–5
5Zack Gelof triples (2) on a sharp fly ball to right fielder Lazaro Montes. Alika Williams scores.6–5
3Cal Raleigh homers (21) on a fly ball to right center field. Randy Arozarena scores.5–5
3Julio Rodríguez grounds out, shortstop Alika Williams to first baseman Jeff McNeil. Brock Rodden scores. Randy Arozarena to 2nd.5–3
3Zack Gelof homers (17) on a fly ball to left field.5–2
3Jeff McNeil homers (8) on a fly ball to right field. Henry Bolte scores.4–2
3Alika Williams homers (4) on a fly ball to left field.2–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.