Rangers at Mariners
Last play · Evan Carter strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Mariners100%
TEX 0%SEA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTEX 1 – 3 SEA
Mariners led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 49.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+123 / -148
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mariners favored ↑50%Rangers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Cole Young doubles (18) on a sharp fly ball to right fielder Brandon Nimmo. Josh Naylor scores. Taylor Ward scores. (inning 4) — +22% Mariners
8Corey Seager homers (17) on a fly ball to left field.2–3
4Cole Young doubles (18) on a sharp fly ball to right fielder Brandon Nimmo. Josh Naylor scores. Taylor Ward scores.1–3
2Taylor Ward singles on a line drive to center fielder Ezequiel Duran. Cal Raleigh scores.1–1
2Jake Burger homers (26) on a fly ball to center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
