Mets at Cardinals
Last play · Brett Baty grounds out, first baseman Alec Burleson to pitcher Riley O'Brien.
Win probability
Cardinals100%
NYM 0%STL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 0 – 2 STL
Cardinals led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-153 / +126
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Cardinals favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Iván Herrera doubles (2) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Juan Soto. Victor Scott II scores. JJ Wetherholt scores. (inning 3) — +23% Cardinals
7Ramón Urías homers (1) on a fly ball to center field.0–3
3Iván Herrera doubles (2) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Juan Soto. Victor Scott II scores. JJ Wetherholt scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
