Red Sox at Cardinals
Last play · Marcelo Mayer strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Cardinals100%
BOS 0%STL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 2 – 3 STL
Cardinals led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8 ↓
fair over 50.4% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-136 / +113
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Cardinals favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · José Fermín out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Jarren Duran. Ramón Urías scores. (inning 5) — +15% Cardinals
5José Fermín out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Jarren Duran. Ramón Urías scores.2–3
5Thomas Saggese singles on a ground ball to left fielder Jarren Duran. Jordan Walker scores. Ramón Urías to 2nd.2–2
4Carlos Narváez grounds out, shortstop Masyn Winn to first baseman Alec Burleson.2–1
4Trevor Story grounds into a force out, shortstop Masyn Winn to second baseman JJ Wetherholt. Masataka Yoshida scores. Wilyer Abreu out at 2nd. Trevor Story advances to 2nd, on a throwing error by second baseman JJ Wetherholt.1–1
2Victor Scott II out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Jarren Duran. Ramón Urías scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
