Red Sox at Cardinals
Last play · Thomas Saggese strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Cardinals0%
BOS 100%STL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 7 – 1 STL
Red Sox led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-118 / -102
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Cardinals favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Willson Contreras homers (3) on a fly ball to center field. Caleb Durbin scores. (inning 1) — -21% Red Sox
9Trevor Story doubles (3) on a ground ball to right fielder Jordan Walker. Jarren Duran scores. Wilyer Abreu scores.9–3
8Alec Burleson homers (2) on a fly ball to center field.7–3
6Nolan Gorman out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela. Iván Herrera scores. Alec Burleson to 3rd. Jordan Walker to 2nd.7–2
4Willson Contreras singles on a line drive to left fielder José Fermín. Jarren Duran scores.7–1
4Jarren Duran doubles (3) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Victor Scott II. Connor Wong scores. Ceddanne Rafaela scores. Caleb Durbin scores.6–1
2Jordan Walker homers (7) on a fly ball to left center field.3–1
2Roman Anthony grounds out, third baseman Ramón Urías to first baseman Alec Burleson. Trevor Story scores. Marcelo Mayer to 3rd. Ceddanne Rafaela to 2nd.3–0
1Willson Contreras homers (3) on a fly ball to center field. Caleb Durbin scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
