Red Sox at Cardinals
Last play · Yohel Pozo grounds out, first baseman Willson Contreras to pitcher Ryan Watson.
Win probability
Cardinals0%
BOS 100%STL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 2 – 0 STL
Red Sox led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8 ↓
fair over 50.4% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-136 / +113
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Cardinals favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Willson Contreras doubles (2) on a sharp line drive to left fielder José Fermín. Roman Anthony scores. Jarren Duran scores. (inning 4) — -26% Red Sox
9Willson Contreras singles on a sharp ground ball to left fielder José Fermín. Caleb Durbin scores. Jarren Duran to 2nd.7–1
9Jarren Duran singles on a sharp ground ball to center fielder Nathan Church. Roman Anthony scores. Caleb Durbin to 2nd.6–1
9Caleb Durbin singles on a sharp ground ball to left fielder José Fermín. Carlos Narváez scores. Ceddanne Rafaela scores. Roman Anthony to 2nd.5–1
9Ceddanne Rafaela singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Nathan Church. Trevor Story scores. Carlos Narváez to 2nd.3–1
8Jordan Walker homers (6) on a fly ball to center field.2–1
4Willson Contreras doubles (2) on a sharp line drive to left fielder José Fermín. Roman Anthony scores. Jarren Duran scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
