Mariners at Cardinals
SEA11–
STL9Last play · Nathan Church grounds into a double play, first baseman Josh Naylor to shortstop J.P. Crawford. Nolan Gorman out at 2nd. Nathan Church out at 1st.
Win probability
Cardinals0%
SEA 100%STL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 6 – 7 STL
Cardinals led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8 ↓
fair over 49.6% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-149 / +123
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Cardinals favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · Leo Rivas singles on a line drive to center fielder Victor Scott II. J.P. Crawford scores. Mitch Garver scores. Cole Young to 2nd. (inning 9) — -41% Mariners
9Leo Rivas singles on a line drive to center fielder Victor Scott II. J.P. Crawford scores. Mitch Garver scores. Cole Young to 2nd.11–9
8Connor Joe singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Jordan Walker. Mitch Garver scores. Cole Young scores.9–9
7Nathan Church homers (4) on a line drive to right center field. Masyn Winn scores.7–9
6Dominic Canzone singles on a ground ball to center fielder Victor Scott II. Cole Young scores.7–7
5Randy Arozarena out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Victor Scott II. Julio Rodríguez scores.6–7
4Cole Young homers (3) on a fly ball to right field.5–7
3Umpire reviewed (home run), call on the field was upheld: Pedro Pagés homers (2) on a fly ball to left field. Masyn Winn scores.4–7
3Nathan Church out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Nolan Gorman scores. Masyn Winn to 2nd.4–5
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.