Mariners at Cardinals
Last play · Ramón Urías strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Cardinals0%
SEA 100%STL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 2 – 2 STL
Tied through 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8 ↓
fair over 49.6% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-149 / +123
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Cardinals favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · Masyn Winn singles on a line drive to right fielder Luke Raley. Jordan Walker scores. Nolan Gorman scores. Masyn Winn to 2nd. (inning 4) — +27% Cardinals
6Josh Naylor homers (3) on a fly ball to right center field.3–2
4Masyn Winn singles on a line drive to right fielder Luke Raley. Jordan Walker scores. Nolan Gorman scores. Masyn Winn to 2nd.2–2
4Dominic Canzone singles on a ground ball to left fielder José Fermín. Josh Naylor scores.2–0
2Cole Young singles on a ground ball to center fielder Nathan Church. Randy Arozarena scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
