Dodgers at Cardinals
Last play · Dalton Rushing strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Cardinals100%
LAD 0%STL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalLAD 0 – 3 STL
Cardinals led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-131 / +109
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Cardinals favored ↑50%Dodgers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jordan Walker homers (10) on a line drive to left field. Alec Burleson scores. (inning 3) — +17% Cardinals
9Andy Pages singles on a ground ball to left fielder Nathan Church. Teoscar Hernández scores. Max Muncy to 2nd.2–3
9Max Muncy singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Jordan Walker, deflected by second baseman JJ Wetherholt. Kyle Tucker scores. Teoscar Hernández to 3rd.1–3
3Jordan Walker homers (10) on a line drive to left field. Alec Burleson scores.0–3
3Alec Burleson doubles (9) on a ground ball to right fielder Kyle Tucker. Iván Herrera scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
