Dodgers at Cardinals
Last play · Shohei Ohtani flies out sharply to center fielder Victor Scott II.
Win probability
Cardinals100%
LAD 0%STL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalLAD 1 – 4 STL
Cardinals led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-131 / +109
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Cardinals favored ↑50%Dodgers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nolan Gorman homers (5) on a fly ball to right field. Jordan Walker scores. (inning 1) — +24% Cardinals
7Nathan Church grounds into a force out, shortstop Miguel Rojas to second baseman Hyeseong Kim. Jordan Walker scores. Masyn Winn out at 2nd. Nathan Church to 1st.2–7
7Jordan Walker doubles (6) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Teoscar Hernández. Iván Herrera scores. Alec Burleson scores. Jordan Walker to 3rd. Jordan Walker advances to 3rd, on a fielding error by left fielder Teoscar Hernández.2–6
6Kyle Tucker out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Victor Scott II. Freddie Freeman scores. Will Smith to 3rd.2–4
3Alec Burleson homers (5) on a fly ball to right field.1–4
2Max Muncy doubles (5) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Victor Scott II. Andy Pages scores.1–3
1Nolan Gorman homers (5) on a fly ball to right field. Jordan Walker scores.0–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
