Brewers at Cardinals
Last play · Andrew Vaughn flies out to right fielder Jordan Walker.
Win probability
Cardinals100%
MIL 0%STL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIL 0 – 4 STL
Cardinals led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 49.6% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-126 / +105
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Cardinals favored ↑50%Brewers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Iván Herrera doubles (9) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Garrett Mitchell. Nathan Church scores. Pedro Pagés scores. JJ Wetherholt scores. (inning 4) — +21% Cardinals
9Brice Turang homers (5) on a fly ball to center field. Jackson Chourio scores.3–6
8JJ Wetherholt singles on a line drive to center fielder Garrett Mitchell. Victor Scott II scores.1–6
7Masyn Winn singles on a ground ball to right fielder Sal Frelick. Jordan Walker scores. Nolan Gorman out at 3rd on the throw, right fielder Sal Frelick to shortstop David Hamilton.1–5
6Luis Rengifo singles on a sharp ground ball to left fielder Nathan Church. Jake Bauers scores. Sal Frelick to 2nd.1–4
4Iván Herrera doubles (9) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Garrett Mitchell. Nathan Church scores. Pedro Pagés scores. JJ Wetherholt scores.0–4
2JJ Wetherholt singles on a line drive to center fielder Garrett Mitchell. Masyn Winn scores. Victor Scott II to 3rd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
