Brewers at Cardinals
Last play · César Prieto grounds into a double play, second baseman Brice Turang to shortstop Joey Ortiz to first baseman Jake Bauers. José Fermín out at 2nd. César Prieto out at 1st.
Win probability
Cardinals0%
MIL 100%STL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIL 5 – 0 STL
Brewers led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8 ↓
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-115 / -105
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Cardinals favored ↑50%Brewers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Andrew Vaughn homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field. William Contreras scores. Jake Bauers scores. (inning 1) — -26% Brewers
9José Fermín reaches on a fielding error by shortstop Joey Ortiz. Nolan Gorman scores.6–2
9Jackson Chourio doubles (3) on a sharp fly ball to right fielder Jordan Walker. Sal Frelick scores.6–1
8Alec Burleson singles on a sharp ground ball to right fielder Sal Frelick. Victor Scott II scores.5–1
5Brice Turang walks.5–0
1Andrew Vaughn homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field. William Contreras scores. Jake Bauers scores.4–0
1Jake Bauers singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Nathan Church. Brice Turang scores. William Contreras to 2nd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
