Brewers at Cardinals
Last play · Nathan Church grounds out to first baseman Andrew Vaughn.
Win probability
Cardinals0%
MIL 100%STL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIL 2 – 3 STL
Cardinals led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 50.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-211 / +172
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Cardinals favored ↑50%Brewers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Christian Yelich doubles (12) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Lars Nootbaar. Cooper Pratt scores. Joey Ortiz to 3rd. (inning 7) — -19% Brewers
7Christian Yelich doubles (12) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Lars Nootbaar. Cooper Pratt scores. Joey Ortiz to 3rd.4–3
6Cardinals challenged (tag play), call on the field was upheld: Garrett Mitchell singles on a line drive to center fielder Nathan Church. Jake Bauers scores. Garrett Mitchell to 2nd.3–3
3Iván Herrera homers (11) on a fly ball to left field.2–3
3Christian Yelich singles on a sharp ground ball to center fielder Nathan Church. Joey Ortiz scores.2–2
3Joey Ortiz doubles (6) on a line drive to left fielder Lars Nootbaar. Cooper Pratt scores.1–2
1Jordan Walker homers (21) on a fly ball to left field. JJ Wetherholt scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
