Royals at Cardinals
Last play · Yohel Pozo singles on a ground ball to right fielder Lane Thomas. Nathan Church scores. JJ Wetherholt to 2nd.
Win probability
Cardinals100%
KC 0%STL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalKC 2 – 3 STL
Cardinals led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 50.4% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-106 / -114
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Cardinals favored ↑50%Royals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Alec Burleson singles on a line drive to right fielder Lane Thomas. Thomas Saggese scores. (inning 10) — +44% Cardinals
11Yohel Pozo singles on a ground ball to right fielder Lane Thomas. Nathan Church scores. JJ Wetherholt to 2nd.4–5
10Alec Burleson singles on a line drive to right fielder Lane Thomas. Thomas Saggese scores.4–4
10Bobby Witt Jr. doubles (12) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Nathan Church. Maikel Garcia scores.4–3
6Isaac Collins grounds out to first baseman Alec Burleson. Vinnie Pasquantino scores. Carter Jensen to 3rd. Jac Caglianone to 2nd.3–3
5Pedro Pagés homers (4) on a fly ball to center field.2–3
4Jordan Walker homers (13) on a fly ball to center field. Iván Herrera scores.2–2
4Isaac Collins out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Jordan Walker. Salvador Perez scores. Carter Jensen to 3rd.2–0
4Carter Jensen doubles (5) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Nathan Church. Vinnie Pasquantino scores. Salvador Perez to 3rd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
