Royals at Cardinals
KC2–
STL4Last play · Kyle Isbel grounds into a double play, second baseman Thomas Saggese to shortstop Masyn Winn to first baseman Alec Burleson. Isaac Collins out at 2nd. Kyle Isbel out at 1st.
Win probability
Cardinals100%
KC 0%STL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalKC 1 – 3 STL
Cardinals led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 50.4% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-106 / -114
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Cardinals favored ↑50%Royals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Victor Scott II reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino. Thomas Saggese scores. Nathan Church to 3rd. (inning 5) — +15% Cardinals
9Jac Caglianone homers (5) on a fly ball to right field.2–4
8Alec Burleson singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Isaac Collins. Masyn Winn scores. Iván Herrera to 3rd. Alec Burleson to 2nd. Alec Burleson advances to 2nd, on a throwing error by catcher Elias Díaz.1–4
5Masyn Winn out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Kyle Isbel. Nathan Church scores.1–3
5Victor Scott II reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino. Thomas Saggese scores. Nathan Church to 3rd.1–2
5Vinnie Pasquantino singles on a line drive to center fielder Victor Scott II. Maikel Garcia scores.1–1
1Alec Burleson out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Jac Caglianone. Iván Herrera scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.