Royals at Cardinals
Last play · Nathan Church grounds out, shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. to first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino.
Win probability
Cardinals0%
KC 100%STL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalKC 2 – 0 STL
Royals led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+100 / -120
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Cardinals favored ↑50%Royals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Salvador Perez homers (7) on a fly ball to left field. (inning 4) — -17% Royals
4Salvador Perez homers (7) on a fly ball to left field.2–0
1Salvador Perez out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Thomas Saggese. Maikel Garcia scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
