Cubs at Cardinals

Scoreboard

CHC5–STL6

Final

OverviewPitchingBattingBox Score

Line score

Busch Stadium · CHC 31-27 · STL 30-25

Inn	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
CHC	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	5	11	0
STL	3	0	0	1	1	0	0	1	·	6	9	0

Last play · Alex Bregman grounds out, shortstop Masyn Winn to first baseman Alec Burleson.

Win probability

Cardinals100%

CHC 0%STL 100%

First 5 (F5)

final

CHC 4 – 5 STL

Cardinals led after 5

The book's line

DraftKings · prices only

Total runs

7.5

opened 8 ↓

fair over 51.7% · hold 4.6%

Run line

+1.5

Moneyline

reference

-135 / +112

We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.

Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.

Win probability timeline

home WP · dots = scoring plays

Cardinals favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓

Biggest swing · Nelson Velázquez homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field. Iván Herrera scores. Jordan Walker scores. (inning 1) — +33% Cardinals

Scoring plays

CHC–STL · 7 total

9Michael Busch grounds out, third baseman Nolan Gorman to first baseman Alec Burleson. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores.5–6

8José Fermín singles on a line drive to left fielder Ian Happ. Nelson Velázquez scores. Masyn Winn to 2nd.4–6

5Iván Herrera homers (7) on a fly ball to left center field.4–5

4Thomas Saggese homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field.4–4

2Michael Busch singles on a line drive to left fielder José Fermín. Dansby Swanson scores. Nico Hoerner to 2nd.4–3

1Nelson Velázquez homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field. Iván Herrera scores. Jordan Walker scores.3–3

1Ian Happ homers (13) on a fly ball to right center field. Michael Busch scores. Alex Bregman scores.3–0

Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.