Cubs at Cardinals
Last play · Jordan Walker lines out to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong.
Win probability
Cardinals0%
CHC 100%STL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 1 – 1 STL
Tied through 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 49% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-131 / +109
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Cardinals favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Michael Busch singles on a ground ball to center fielder Victor Scott II. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores. (inning 5) — -15% Cubs
9Pete Crow-Armstrong singles on a line drive to center fielder Victor Scott II. Seiya Suzuki scores. Miguel Amaya to 3rd. Dansby Swanson to 2nd.6–1
9Dansby Swanson walks.5–1
8Pete Crow-Armstrong homers (7) on a fly ball to right field.4–1
6Michael Busch out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Jordan Walker. Dansby Swanson scores. Pete Crow-Armstrong to 3rd.3–1
6Nico Hoerner singles on a line drive to right fielder Jordan Walker. Miguel Amaya scores. Dansby Swanson to 3rd. Pete Crow-Armstrong to 2nd.2–1
5Michael Busch singles on a ground ball to center fielder Victor Scott II. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores.1–1
4Alec Burleson singles on a ground ball to right fielder Seiya Suzuki. JJ Wetherholt scores. Alec Burleson out at 2nd on the throw, right fielder Seiya Suzuki to catcher Miguel Amaya to shortstop Dansby Swanson.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
